IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Morgan St.
Mid-Eastern
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	-11.3	#323
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	71.8	#94
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-6.3	#325

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-5.0	#307

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	8.6%	11.4%	6.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.9	15.9	16.0

.500 or above	41.2%	57.1%	30.3%
.500 or above in Conference	55.8%	65.1%	49.3%
Conference Champion	12.2%	16.0%	9.7%
Last Place in Conference	2.0%	0.9%	2.8%

First Four	7.4%	9.1%	6.1%
First Round	4.0%	5.8%	2.8%
Second Round	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Mount St. Mary's (Home) - 40.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 2	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 3	0 - 3	0 - 3
Quad 4	10 - 8	10 - 12

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 25, 2020	257	Mount St. Mary's	L	66-68	41%
Dec 08, 2020	123	@ George Mason	L	63-80	6%
Dec 13, 2020	292	Bellarmine	L	63-64	47%
Dec 16, 2020	213	@ Navy	L	60-71	17%
Dec 19, 2020	184	@ Towson	L	64-77	13%
Jan 02, 2021	330	@ Maryland Eastern Shore	L	59-61	44%
Jan 06, 2021	244	@ Norfolk St.	L	66-75	22%
Jan 09, 2021	346	Delaware St.	W	87-77	81%
Jan 11, 2021	326	@ Howard	L	77-80	42%
Jan 16, 2021	244	Norfolk St.	L	69-72	39%
Jan 20, 2021	327	Coppin St.	W	79-75	62%
Jan 23, 2021	346	@ Delaware St.	W	84-80	64%
Jan 30, 2021	326	Howard	W	80-77	62%
Feb 01, 2021	346	Delaware St.	W	87-77	80%
Feb 08, 2021	326	Howard	W	80-77	61%
Feb 10, 2021	327	@ Coppin St.	L	76-78	42%
Feb 15, 2021	330	Maryland Eastern Shore	W	62-58	63%
Feb 20, 2021	327	@ Coppin St.	L	76-78	42%
Feb 22, 2021	244	@ Norfolk St.	L	66-75	23%
Mar 04, 2021	327	Coppin St.	W	79-75	61%
Projected Record						9 - 11	8 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st								0.0	0.1	0.5	1.5	2.7	3.0	2.6	1.4	0.4			12.2	1st
2nd							0.1	0.5	2.7	5.8	6.4	5.1	2.4	0.6	0.0				23.5	2nd
3rd						0.0	0.7	3.5	6.4	5.4	2.5	0.7	0.1						19.4	3rd
4th					0.1	0.9	4.1	6.1	3.5	1.4	0.2	0.0							16.3	4th
5th				0.0	0.7	3.7	4.4	1.6	0.3	0.0									10.7	5th
6th				0.4	2.2	3.5	0.9	0.1											7.1	6th
7th			0.1	1.2	2.4	0.9	0.1												4.6	7th
8th		0.0	0.7	1.5	0.8	0.1													3.1	8th
9th	0.0	0.4	1.1	0.7	0.1														2.3	9th
10th	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.1															0.8	10th

Total	0.2	0.7	2.1	3.9	6.3	9.0	10.3	11.7	13.0	13.1	10.6	8.5	5.5	3.2	1.5	0.4				Total

Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0
15-1	100.0%	0.4		0.4
14-2	99.6%	1.4		1.3	0.1
13-3	81.5%	2.6		2.0	0.6	0.0
12-4	54.5%	3.0		2.0	0.9	0.1
11-5	31.2%	2.7		1.4	1.1	0.2	0.0
10-6	14.0%	1.5		0.6	0.7	0.2	0.0
9-7	3.9%	0.5		0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0
8-8	0.8%	0.1			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Total	12.2%	12.2		7.9	3.6	0.6	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1	0.4%		46.0%	46.0%		15.0												0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2
14-2	1.5%		37.1%	37.1%		15.6														0.0	0.1	0.1	0.4	0.9
13-3	3.2%		30.6%	30.6%		15.8														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.8	2.2
12-4	5.5%		21.8%	21.8%		16.0																0.0	1.2	4.3
11-5	8.5%		18.1%	18.1%		16.0																0.0	1.5	7.0
10-6	10.6%		13.8%	13.8%		16.0																0.0	1.4	9.1
9-7	13.1%		9.0%	9.0%		16.0																	1.2	11.9
8-8	13.0%		5.5%	5.5%		16.0																	0.7	12.3
7-9	11.7%		3.7%	3.7%		16.0																	0.4	11.3
6-10	10.3%		2.3%	2.3%		16.0																	0.2	10.1
5-11	9.0%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.1	9.0
4-12	6.3%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	6.3
3-13	3.9%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	3.9
2-14	2.1%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.0	2.1
1-15	0.7%																							0.7
0-16	0.2%																							0.2

Total	100%		8.6%	8.6%	0.0%	15.9												0.0		0.0	0.1	0.4	8.1	91.4		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%